January 2010 Market Update

Quick Statistics

The average price for the 59 properties is $1,320,833.

The highest price is $15,500,000 - 1801 Fernald Point Lane

The median price is $760,000.

The lowest price is $367,500 - 255 Cramer Circle

The average Market Time is 107.

Santa Barbara Real Estate through the end of January 2010 for Montecito, Hope Ranch, Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria and Summerland.

Market Overview:

The number of sales this January has increased substantially in both the Home Estate/PUD Market and the Condo Market.  However, for both Home Estate/PUDs and Condos the median sales price in January 2010 took a beating.  This is primarily because of the significant number of foreclosures and short sales that were a substantial part of the sales figures. There are definitely more properties in both categories coming on the market but whether it's a flood or a trickle will determine whether prices remain where they are currently or move in one direction or the other.  There is still a lot of activity in the marketplace but until the foreclosures and short sales have left the inventory this descending price trend should continue and unfortunately it looks like those distressed properties will continue to appear.

Home Estate/PUD

January 2010 for the Home Estate/PUD market in Santa Barbara, Montecito, Hope Ranch, Carpinteria/Summerland and Goleta January ended with about 60 sales. This is a drop from 95 in December, but substantially ahead of the 44 that closed in January 2009. The decline in the number of sales was most evident in the $1 to $2 million category which went from 27 in December to less than 8 in January. The below $1 million price range also declined from over 50 sales in December to 44 in January.  The $2 million and up category went from 11 sales in December to 7 in January.

Accompanying the decline in the numbers of sales is a drop in the median sales price from $850,000 in December 2009 to $750,000 in January 2010.  Also, the Sales Price to Original List Price ratio dipped down to about 75% for January. There were however about 56 escrows opened for the month with the median list price for those properties around $825,000 so we'll have to see if the Median Sales price for February bounces back up to the mid $800,000 mark as it has done every other month for the last six months.

Districts

Carpinteria/Summerland: This area had 8 sales compared to 1 last January and the median sales price has gone from $500,000 in 2009 to $675,000 this year.

Montecito: 7 sales so far this year with a median sales price of $3.3 million compared to 2009 when there were 6 sales but the median sales price was about $1.7 million. This is probably an anomaly, however, because the 8 homes that went into escrow in January had a median list price of about $1.6 million.

East of State St: Saw a jump in sales from 10 in 2009 to 20 in 2010 but the median sales price has dipped from $970,000 last year to $839,000 this year.

West of State St: Fewer sales in January with 8 this year compared to 10 in 2009.  The median sales price has also dropped from $886,000 last year to $727,500 this year.

Hope Ranch: 2 sales with a median sales price of about $3.6 million while in 2009 there was just 1 sale for $2.175 million. However, the price trend is downward with the 1 escrow that opened in January displaying a list price of about $1.7 million.

Goleta South: 8 sales compared to 6 last year but the median sales price has dropped substantially from about $790,000 last year to approximately $550,000 this year.

Goleta North: 9 sales this year compared to 11 last year with the median sales price falling from $700,000 in 2009 to $674,000 in 2010.

Condos

The Condo market has started 2010 strong with over 20 sales compared to only 12 in 2009.  However, last year those 12 sales had a median sales price of about $480,000 and this year the median sales price is closer to $375,000. Just like with the Home Estate/PUD market there are a substantial number of short sales and foreclosures that are part of that mix which is driving the price down, but even so that's still the lowest 1 month median sales price in years.

It looks like the median sales price should come back up however because in January there were 27 escrows opened with a median list price of $429,000. The Sales Price to Original List Price ratio is also a lot stronger compared to the Home Estate hovering around the 92%.

There has been a decline in the upper end of the condo market. Of the 21 sales in January, 19 were from $510,000 down with the least expensive condo selling for $215,000. Above $510,000 there were only 2 sales, 1 for $815,000 on the East Side of Santa Barbara and 1 for $1,050,000 in Montecito. Of the 319 condo sales in 2009 less than 20 of them were for $1 million or over with most of the higher priced properties selling either in downtown Santa Barbara or Carpinteria.

Districts

Carpinteria/Summerland: 5 sales in January 2010 compared to 3 in 2009 with the median sales price falling slightly from $340,000 last year to $330,000 this year. Montecito: There was the 1 sale in January for $1,050,000 compared to none in 2009.

East of State St: January had 7 sales this year compared to 3 in 2009 but the median sales price fell from $850,000 last year to just $310,000 this year.

West of State St: There were 4 sales in 2009 compared to 2 in 2010 with the median sales price dropping from $496,000 last year to $443,000 this year.

Goleta South: There were 3 sales in January 2010 compared to 2 in 2009 but the median sales price fell from $667,250 last year to $465,000 this year.

Goleta North: There were 3 sales this year with a median sales price of $459,000 compared to last year when there were none.